- Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea.
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Ju Young Lee, Jin Soo Hwang, Un Yeong Goh, Mee Kyung Kee, Jee Yun Kim
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Korean J Prev Med. 2002;35(1):65-71.
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- OBJECTIVE
To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. METHODS: Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods RESULTS: The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were 708~1,426 in Weibull distribution and 918~1,980 in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was 16~25 in Weibull distribution and 13~26 in Gamma distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were 1.4~4.0 times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea. Further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.
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- A Survey on Physical Complaints Related with Farmers' Syndrome of Vinylhouse and Non-vinylhouse Farmers.
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Ju Young Lee, Jung Han Park, Doohie Kim
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Korean J Prev Med. 1994;27(2):258-273.
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- To compare the physical complaints of vinylhouse farmers with those of non-vinylhouse farmers, a personal interviews on 250 and 142 vinylhouse farmers were conducted in Sungjoo county in Kyungpook province selected by a random sampling from July 5 to July 10, 1993. Blood pressure of the subjects was also measured. Vinylhouse farmers had a higher average age, larger family size, shorter experience of farming, more working hours per day and working days per year and higher annual income than non-vinylhouse farmers. The frequency of preticide spray of the vinylhouse farmer was 3.4times on the average in June 1993 as compared with 2.0 times of non-vinylhouse farmers, and 16.7 times for the vinylhouse farmers during the last one year while it was 8.3 times for the non-vinylhouse farmers in the same period. While 39.6% of vinylhouse farmers experienced pesticide intoxication symptoms such as headache, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, itching, and skin irritation, etc. during the month of June, 25.4% of non-vinylhouse farmers experienced such symptoms. The most frequent symptoms among eight symptoms that constitute the farmers' syndrome were lumbago, numbness of hand or foot shoulder pain and dizziness regardless of sex and type of farming. Prevalence of the farmers' syndrome in male and female among vinylhouse farmers were 22.1%, 43.4%, respectively, and the prevalence in non-vinylhouse farmers was 23.2% for male and 50.7%for female. There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of farmers' syndrome between vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers. However, The prevalence on female was about 2 times higher than that of male When the effects of other factors were adjusted by multiple logistic regression for farmers' syndrome, the prevalence in female was 3.0 times higher than that of male. The prevalence of farmers' syndrome was increased as the age of farmers increased on both vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers, and adjusted odds ratio of farmers' syndrome increased by 3% as the age increased by 1 year Adjusted odds ratio of Farmers' syndrome in farmers who experienced pesticide intoxication during the month of June was 3.7times higher than that of farmers who did not have such experience. While the prevalence of hypertension in male and female non-vinylhouse farmers were 22.4%, 13.7%, respectively, the prevalence in vinylhouse farmers were 13.5% for male and 12.0% for female. However, there was no association between farmers' syndrome and hypertension. It was found in this study that the vinylhouse farmers are at a high risk of pesticide intoxication, which is associated with the common physical complaints. To reduce such risk it is necessary to develop farming methods which do not require the pesticide of may use less pesticide, a safer method of pesticide spraying, and the protective equipments which can be worn at a high temperature and have a better protective effect. Also education of farmers for the correct methods of ventilation after pesticide spraying in the vinylhouse and wearing the protective equipments may be considered as a supportive method. Since inappropriate posture at work and intensive labor may cause farmers' syndrome, it is recommended to develop farming tools which reduce physical burden and take a rest and exercise periodically during work. It is necessary to strengthen the hypertension management program of the Kyungpook province, because the prevalence of hypertension was as high as about 15%.
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- Factors related to poor school performance of elementary school children.
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Jung Han Park, Gui Yeon Kim, Kyu Sook Her, Ju Young Lee, Doo Hie Kim
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Korean J Prev Med. 1993;26(4):628-649.
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- This study was conducted to investigate the factors related to the poor school performance of the elementary school children. Two schools in Taegu, one in the affluent area and the other in the poor area, were selected and a total of 175 children whose school performance was within low 10 percentile(poor performers) and 97 children whose school performance were within high 5 percentile(good performers) in each class of 2nd, 4th and 6th grades were tested for the physical health, behavioral problem and family background. Each child had gone through a battery of tests including visual and hearing acuity, anthropometry(body weight, height, head circumference), intelligence(Kodae Stanford-Binet test), test anxiety(TAI-K), neurologic examination by a developmental pediatrician and heavy metal content(Pb, Cd, Zn) in hair by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. A questionnaire was administered to the mothers for prenatal and perinatal courses of the child, family environment, child's developmental history, and child's behavioral and learning problems. Another questionnaire was administered to the teachers of the children for the child's family background, arithmatic and language abilities and behavioral problem. The poor school performance had a significant correlation with male gender, high birth order, broken home, low educational and occupational levels of parents, visual problem, high test anxiety score, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD), poor physical growth(weight, height, head circumference) and low I.Q. score. The factors that had a significant correlation with the poor school performance in multiple logistic regression analysis were child's birth order(odds ratio=2.06), male gender(odds ratio=5.91), broken home(odds ratio=9.29), test anxiety score(odds ratio=1.07), ADHD(odds ratio=9.67), I.Q. score(odds ratio=0.85) and height less than Korean standard mean-1 S. D.(odds ratio=11.12). The heavy metal contents in hair did not show any significant correlation with poor school performance. However the lead and cadmium contents were high in males than in females. The lead content was negatively correlated with child's grade(p<0.05) and zinc was positively correlated with grade(p<0.05). Among the factors that showed a significant correlation with the poor school performance, high birth order, short stature and ADHD may be modified by a good family planning, good feeding practice for infant and child, and early detection and treatment of ADHD. Also, teacher and parents should restrain themselves from inducing excessive test anxiety by forcing the child to study and over-expecting beyond the child's intellectual capability.
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